Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Bengals (-7.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (60%) · Bengals at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bengals
5
Bengals 60%
$3.4K
$475.85
54.1¢ → 33.5¢
-38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBengals at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Bengalsavg 65¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Bengalsavg 40¢ | $684.8 | $1.1K | +$428 | 46% 367-427 (794) |
AN Anon455 | Titansavg 35¢ | $772.67 | $818.09 | +$45.42 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Bengalsavg 63.6¢ | $138.94 | $142.09 | +$3.15 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Titansavg 37¢ | $17.76 | $16.32 | -$0.72 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
Invested
$1,313.09
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$684.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$428
Record
46%
367-427 (794)
Invested
$772.67
Value
$818.09
PnL
+$45.42
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Invested
$138.94
Value
$142.09
PnL
+$3.15
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$17.76
Value
$16.32
PnL
-$0.72
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.