Spread: Bengals (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (44%) · Titans at 75¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 1

Bengals26¢Titans74¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 44%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$484.71

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 74.5¢

+61% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals26%

Titans75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans4 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares25,881

Combined PnL+$21.97

Bengals5 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,714

Combined PnL+$462.75

Titans — 44%Bengals — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Titansavg 43.4¢	$8.2K	$7.8K	-$360.83	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
AN Anon455	Titansavg 66.8¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$340.11	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
JU Justluck9CTR	Bengalsavg 54¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$27.62	40% 94-139 (233)
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR	Bengalsavg 54.5¢	$981.98	$1.5K	+$495.61	51% 144-139 (283)
RN1	Titansavg 30¢	$762.9	$826.48	+$63.57	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
TO topdogbigboi	Titansavg 80.7¢	$278.36	$257.47	-$20.89	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 65¢	$59.15	$58.7	-$0.45	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 18.2¢	$52.29	$47.39	-$4.9	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Bengalsavg 81¢	$8.1	$8.2	+$0.1	53% 11583-10087 (21670)

takeormake

Titans

Invested

$8,190.81

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$360.83

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

Anon455

Titans

Invested

$2,756.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$340.11

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Justluck9CTR

Bengals

Invested

$2,982.74

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$27.62

Record

40%

94-139 (233)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR

Bengals

Invested

$981.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$495.61

Record

51%

144-139 (283)

RN1

Titans

Invested

$762.9

Value

$826.48

PnL

+$63.57

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

topdogbigboi

Titans

Invested

$278.36

Value

$257.47

PnL

-$20.89

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$59.15

Value

$58.7

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$52.29

Value

$47.39

PnL

-$4.9

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.