Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bengals, while the market favors Titans (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Bengals (-13.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (50%) · Bengals at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Bengals
6
Bengals 50%
$4.2K
$7.84
47.6¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBengals at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Bengalsavg 48¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$20.83 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Bengalsavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$29.81 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761dCTR | Bengalsavg 48¢ | $300.4 | $300.4 | +$0 | 51% 144-139 (283) |
SU SunlineTicker | Titansavg 52¢ | $236.08 | $236.08 | +$0 | 62% 4201-2575 (6776) |
JO jole24 | Titansavg 52¢ | $105.04 | $105.04 | -$1.01 | 44% 1031-1292 (2323) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Titansavg 52.6¢ | $96.73 | $95.68 | -$0.13 | 57% 29226-21613 (50839) |
Invested
$2,000.16
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$20.83
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$1,401.01
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$29.81
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$300.4
Value
$300.4
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
144-139 (283)
Invested
$236.08
Value
$236.08
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
4201-2575 (6776)
Invested
$105.04
Value
$105.04
PnL
-$1.01
Record
44%
1031-1292 (2323)
Invested
$96.73
Value
$95.68
PnL
-$0.13
Record
57%
29226-21613 (50839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.