Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (89%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 58.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 12¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 9

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$25.3K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 11.5¢

-72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$16.8K

Total Shares32,083

Combined PnL-$584.89

Under4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares9,815

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$12.8K	$12.8K	+$7.24	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 55.9¢	$14.3K	$6.6K	+$4.2K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
betdgeCTR	Overavg 33.7¢	$2.1K	$3.1K	+$977.24	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 55¢	$825.03	$1.1K	+$432.46	80% 4375-1094 (5469)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 79¢	$1.1K	$785.77	+$12.53	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
RN1CTR	Overavg 44.9¢	$2.2K	$579.18	$-1.6K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 20.5¢	$61.4	$148.4	+$87	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 19¢	$192.41	$126.59	-$65.82	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Underavg 58¢	$49.15	$42.79	-$6.36	46% 942-1120 (2062)
QI qidao001CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$24.96	$24.03	-$0.93	84% 1390-257 (1647)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$12,819.34

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$7.24

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$14,270.8

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

betdgeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,080.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$977.24

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$825.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$432.46

Record

80%

4375-1094 (5469)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,060.62

Value

$785.77

PnL

+$12.53

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,168.8

Value

$579.18

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$61.4

Value

$148.4

PnL

+$87

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$192.41

Value

$126.59

PnL

-$65.82

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Under

Invested

$49.15

Value

$42.79

PnL

-$6.36

Record

46%

942-1120 (2062)

qidao001CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.96

Value

$24.03

PnL

-$0.93

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 89%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.