Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 50.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 60¢ · $44K held · ended Nov 9

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$44.5K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 60¢

+23% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares37,665

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$22.8K

Total Shares41,224

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 51.2¢	$18.8K	$21.3K	+$2.5K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Overavg 47.7¢	$13.1K	$15.3K	+$2.2K	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
BI biying88888	Overavg 52.7¢	$3.1K	$3.5K	+$424.65	47% 242-270 (512)
CM cm2897	Overavg 50.6¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$66.47	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49¢	$791.84	$913.04	+$121.2	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$500.94	$328	-$67.94	80% 4375-1094 (5469)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$82.43	$99.42	+$16.98	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
betdgeCTR<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$50.75	$50.5	-$0.25	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear<$100	Overavg 51.7¢	$1.01	$0.97	-$0.04	45% 462-569 (1031)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$18,828.39

Value

$21.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

ferrariChampions2026

Over

Invested

$13,130.2

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

biying88888

Over

Invested

$3,054.6

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$424.65

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

cm2897

Over

Invested

$3,087.38

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$66.47

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$791.84

Value

$913.04

PnL

+$121.2

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$500.94

Value

$328

PnL

-$67.94

Record

80%

4375-1094 (5469)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$82.43

Value

$99.42

PnL

+$16.98

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

betdgeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.75

Value

$50.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

SunflowaRebuildYear<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.04

Record

45%

462-569 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.