Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 48.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$59.09

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,333

Combined PnL+$53.99

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,103

Combined PnL+$5.1

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 48¢	$9.3K	$4.5K	+$46.53	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.72	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 47.9¢	$999.99	$991.67	-$8.32	55% 825-679 (1504)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$509.99	$514.99	+$5	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 51¢	$286.41	$289.22	+$2.81	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
nigiri99	Underavg 52¢	$273.52	$270.89	-$2.63	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$192	$190	-$2	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$97.27	$98.3	+$1.03	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52¢	$7.8	$7.73	-$0.08	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$1.77	$1.79	+$0.02	57% 22335-16609 (38944)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$9,304.85

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$46.53

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,598.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.72

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$999.99

Value

$991.67

PnL

-$8.32

Record

55%

825-679 (1504)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$509.99

Value

$514.99

PnL

+$5

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$286.41

Value

$289.22

PnL

+$2.81

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$273.52

Value

$270.89

PnL

-$2.63

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$190

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.27

Value

$98.3

PnL

+$1.03

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.