Spread: Bears (-9.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (54%) · Buccaneers at 59¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 9

Bears42¢Buccaneers58¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 54%

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$4.3K

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 58.5¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears42%

Buccaneers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers7 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares36,326

Combined PnL+$5.8K

Bears6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares11,978

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Buccaneers — 54%Bears — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Buccaneersavg 40.6¢	$9.8K	$14.1K	+$4.3K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
CM cm2897CTR	Bearsavg 55.5¢	$5.8K	$4.6K	$-1.2K	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
RN1	Buccaneersavg 41.1¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$799.24	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
betdge	Buccaneersavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$613.01	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
PR primm	Buccaneersavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$28.92	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
BI biying88888CTR	Bearsavg 59.7¢	$832.58	$522.75	-$309.83	47% 242-270 (512)
65 6512395314597884	Buccaneersavg 52.1¢	$451.22	$506.48	+$55.26	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bearsavg 39.7¢	$31.95	$30.58	-$1.38	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
LI LightParadox<$100	Buccaneersavg 49.7¢	$7.18	$8.95	+$1.77	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bearsavg 45.7¢	$6.5	$6.39	-$0.11	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Bearsavg 38¢	$4.94	$4.94	+$0	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Bearsavg 60.5¢	$6.66	$4.79	-$1.88	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
QI qidao001<$100	Buccaneersavg 53¢	$3.34	$3.53	+$0.19	84% 1390-257 (1647)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Buccaneers

Invested

$9,821.38

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

cm2897CTR

Bears

Invested

$5,808.92

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

RN1

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,125.2

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$799.24

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

betdge

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,285.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$613.01

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

primm

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,677.69

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$28.92

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

biying88888CTR

Bears

Invested

$832.58

Value

$522.75

PnL

-$309.83

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

6512395314597884

Buccaneers

Invested

$451.22

Value

$506.48

PnL

+$55.26

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$31.95

Value

$30.58

PnL

-$1.38

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

LightParadox<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$7.18

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$1.77

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$6.66

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$1.88

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

qidao001<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.19

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.