Spread: Bears (-16.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (71%) · Buccaneers at 74¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 9

Bears27¢Buccaneers73¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 71%

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 73.5¢

+26% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bears27%

Buccaneers74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers12 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares33,137

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Bears5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares7,763

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Buccaneers — 71%Bears — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Buccaneersavg 61.7¢	$7.9K	$9.0K	+$1.1K	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
RN1	Buccaneersavg 55.1¢	$5.9K	$8.0K	+$2.2K	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
JU Justluck9	Buccaneersavg 49.7¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$664.01	42% 113-157 (270)
betdge	Buccaneersavg 50.6¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$517.64	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
38 38791873984189	Buccaneersavg 73.8¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$38.63	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
CM cm2897CTR	Bearsavg 52.3¢	$2.6K	$1.5K	$-1.1K	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
65 6512395314597884	Buccaneersavg 55¢	$327.71	$447.21	+$119.5	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
BI biying88888CTR	Bearsavg 51.7¢	$718.29	$409.46	-$308.83	47% 242-270 (512)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Bearsavg 19.2¢	$264.21	$337.55	+$73.34	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Buccaneersavg 49.7¢	$159.2	$225.6	+$66.4	48% 598-655 (1253)
GA Gaditima	Buccaneersavg 74¢	$185	$188.75	+$3.75	47% 8644-9781 (18425)
alpheclabs2	Buccaneersavg 75¢	$138	$164.68	+$26.68	47% 1640-1847 (3487)
LI Limousin<$100	Buccaneersavg 48.7¢	$54.27	$78.49	+$24.22	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
PA Pan9X	Buccaneersavg 66.3¢	$101.47	$75.5	+$2.68	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bearsavg 48¢	$54.29	$33.35	-$20.95	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
QI qidao001<$100	Buccaneersavg 62¢	$15.72	$17.87	+$2.15	84% 1390-257 (1647)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bearsavg 49.7¢	$9.95	$5.9	-$4.05	47% 2189-2445 (4634)

primm

Buccaneers

Invested

$7,912.01

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

RN1

Buccaneers

Invested

$5,857.12

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Justluck9

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,591.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$664.01

Record

42%

113-157 (270)

betdge

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,315.36

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$517.64

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

38791873984189

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,700.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$38.63

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

cm2897CTR

Bears

Invested

$2,617.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

6512395314597884

Buccaneers

Invested

$327.71

Value

$447.21

PnL

+$119.5

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

biying88888CTR

Bears

Invested

$718.29

Value

$409.46

PnL

-$308.83

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

justaluckydudeCTR

Bears

Invested

$264.21

Value

$337.55

PnL

+$73.34

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Buccaneers

Invested

$159.2

Value

$225.6

PnL

+$66.4

Record

48%

598-655 (1253)

Gaditima

Buccaneers

Invested

$185

Value

$188.75

PnL

+$3.75

Record

47%

8644-9781 (18425)

alpheclabs2

Buccaneers

Invested

$138

Value

$164.68

PnL

+$26.68

Record

47%

1640-1847 (3487)

Limousin<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$54.27

Value

$78.49

PnL

+$24.22

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Pan9X

Buccaneers

Invested

$101.47

Value

$75.5

PnL

+$2.68

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$54.29

Value

$33.35

PnL

-$20.95

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

qidao001<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$15.72

Value

$17.87

PnL

+$2.15

Record

84%

1390-257 (1647)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$9.95

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$4.05

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.