Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (67%) · Bears at 95¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 9

Buccaneers5¢Bears95¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 67%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$70.38

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 95.3¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers5%

Bears95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears6 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares16,589

Combined PnL+$76.48

Buccaneers3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares13,077

Combined PnL-$6.09

Bears — 67%Buccaneers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Buccaneers) and the top 1000 (5 on Bears) disagree here.

whaleBears 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Bearsavg 80.7¢	$12.6K	$12.6K	-$24.17	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
VeryLucky888CTR	Buccaneersavg 19.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$29.52	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
38 38791873984189	Bearsavg 80¢	$392.52	$439.13	+$46.61	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bearsavg 81¢	$302.9	$360.86	+$57.96	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
PU purplegatto<$100	Bearsavg 81¢	$32.4	$32.2	-$0.2	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Bearsavg 80.8¢	$19.75	$19.44	-$0.31	53% 14337-12646 (26983)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bearsavg 80¢	$13.71	$12.04	-$3.41	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 19.5¢	$44.49	$9.14	-$35.35	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
RN1CTR<$100	Buccaneersavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.19	-$0.27	53% 70249-61821 (132070)

nigiri99

Bears

Invested

$12,621.62

Value

$12.6K

PnL

-$24.17

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

VeryLucky888CTR

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,475

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$29.52

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

38791873984189

Bears

Invested

$392.52

Value

$439.13

PnL

+$46.61

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

HomeRunHazard

Bears

Invested

$302.9

Value

$360.86

PnL

+$57.96

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

purplegatto<$100

Bears

Invested

$32.4

Value

$32.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

BoomLaLa<$100

Bears

Invested

$19.75

Value

$19.44

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

14337-12646 (26983)

Pan9X<$100

Bears

Invested

$13.71

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$3.41

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$44.49

Value

$9.14

PnL

-$35.35

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

RN1CTR<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Buccaneers) and the top 1000 (5 on Bears) disagree here.

whaleBears 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBuccaneers 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.5%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.