Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (33%) · 49ers at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Cowboys21¢49ers79¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 33%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$32.04

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys21%

49ers80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,416

Combined PnL+$33.6

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares6,505

Combined PnL-$65.64

49ers — 33%Cowboys — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (7 on Cowboys) disagree here.

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	49ersavg 79¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$16.74	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	49ersavg 77.9¢	$798.87	$814.88	+$16.01	48% 471-508 (979)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Cowboysavg 21.4¢	$333.02	$319.29	-$13.73	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
OD OddstormCTR	Cowboysavg 22.2¢	$319.22	$294.46	-$24.77	35% 138-251 (389)
VE VenusianCTR	Cowboysavg 21¢	$264.65	$258.35	-$6.3	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 21.5¢	$370.53	$191.76	-$5.37	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cowboysavg 21¢	$157.55	$153.8	-$3.75	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LI LimousinCTR	Cowboysavg 23¢	$134.83	$123.11	-$11.72	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
PA Pan9X<$100	49ersavg 77¢	$33.11	$33.97	+$0.86	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

VeryLucky888

49ers

Invested

$2,644.69

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$16.74

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

49ers

Invested

$798.87

Value

$814.88

PnL

+$16.01

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

LightParadoxCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$333.02

Value

$319.29

PnL

-$13.73

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

OddstormCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$319.22

Value

$294.46

PnL

-$24.77

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

VenusianCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$264.65

Value

$258.35

PnL

-$6.3

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$370.53

Value

$191.76

PnL

-$5.37

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

MadridTimeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$157.55

Value

$153.8

PnL

-$3.75

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

LimousinCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$134.83

Value

$123.11

PnL

-$11.72

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

Pan9X<$100

49ers

Invested

$33.11

Value

$33.97

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (7 on Cowboys) disagree here.

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.