Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (80%) · 49ers at 76¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 15

Cowboys24¢49ers76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 80%

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$178.87

Smart Money Entry

67.8¢ → 76¢

+12% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys24%

49ers76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers8 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares18,257

Combined PnL-$9.22

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares18,809

Combined PnL+$188.09

49ers — 80%Cowboys — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	49ersavg 68¢	$8.3K	$8.3K	-$61.27	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Cowboysavg 32¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$187.55	42% 624-853 (1477)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 68¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$21.05	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	49ersavg 67.9¢	$696.56	$769.29	+$72.73	30% 501-1144 (1645)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 65¢	$117.15	$118.05	+$0.9	49% 497-511 (1008)
PA Pan9X<$100	49ersavg 67.2¢	$74.16	$73.92	-$0.25	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
NO NotJump	49ersavg 50¢	$105	$70.5	-$0.5	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 31¢	$16.82	$17.36	+$0.54	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
65 6512395314597884<$100	49ersavg 65¢	$5.57	$5.61	+$0.04	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	49ersavg 60¢	$3	$3.18	+$0.17	39% 1657-2634 (4291)

takeormake

49ers

Invested

$8,332.72

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$61.27

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

BreakTheBankCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$6,001.59

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$187.55

Record

42%

624-853 (1477)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$3,104.37

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$21.05

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

49ers

Invested

$696.56

Value

$769.29

PnL

+$72.73

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$117.15

Value

$118.05

PnL

+$0.9

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Pan9X<$100

49ers

Invested

$74.16

Value

$73.92

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

NotJump

49ers

Invested

$105

Value

$70.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$16.82

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$0.54

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

6512395314597884<$100

49ers

Invested

$5.57

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

topdogbigboi<$100

49ers

Invested

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.