Spread: 49ers (-9.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (56%) · Cowboys at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

49ers32¢Cowboys68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 56%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$37.34

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers32%

Cowboys69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,077

Combined PnL+$33.71

49ers4 traders

Total Value$275.81

Total Shares866

Combined PnL+$3.62

Cowboys — 56%49ers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr49ers 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 66.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$29.95	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
FO Forecastication2	Cowboysavg 69¢	$795.57	$784.04	-$11.53	44% 339-425 (764)
GA Gaditima	Cowboysavg 65¢	$277.64	$290.45	+$12.81	49% 400-411 (811)
nigiri99CTR	49ersavg 31¢	$138.57	$143.04	+$4.47	50% 748-738 (1486)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 66.4¢	$81.63	$83.64	+$2.01	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
AN Anon455<$100	Cowboysavg 68¢	$63.92	$64.39	+$0.47	49% 486-502 (988)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	49ersavg 32¢	$56.07	$55.19	-$0.88	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	49ersavg 31.7¢	$47.46	$47.96	+$0.5	36% 140-253 (393)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	49ersavg 32¢	$30.08	$29.61	-$0.47	38% 1374-2228 (3602)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$1,520.58

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$29.95

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Forecastication2

Cowboys

Invested

$795.57

Value

$784.04

PnL

-$11.53

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

Gaditima

Cowboys

Invested

$277.64

Value

$290.45

PnL

+$12.81

Record

49%

400-411 (811)

nigiri99CTR

49ers

Invested

$138.57

Value

$143.04

PnL

+$4.47

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$81.63

Value

$83.64

PnL

+$2.01

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Anon455<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$63.92

Value

$64.39

PnL

+$0.47

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$56.07

Value

$55.19

PnL

-$0.88

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

OddstormCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$47.46

Value

$47.96

PnL

+$0.5

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

VenusianCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$30.08

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.47

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctr49ers 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100049ers 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.