Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 49ers, while the market favors Cowboys (56%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 49ers (-7.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (50%) · 49ers at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

49ers44¢Cowboys56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$10.84

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 44¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers44%

Cowboys56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers6 traders

Total Value$757.15

Total Shares1,437

Combined PnL+$8.66

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$548.68

Total Shares921

Combined PnL+$2.17

49ers — 50%Cowboys — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	49ersavg 45¢	$431.92	$436.72	+$4.8	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
AU Aurelius7	Cowboysavg 55¢	$300	$302.73	+$2.73	5% 7-143 (150)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	49ersavg 50¢	$600	$200	+$0	63% 147-86 (233)
PU purplegatto	Cowboysavg 64¢	$119.9	$119.9	-$0	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	49ersavg 45¢	$90	$91	+$1	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cowboysavg 63.1¢	$71.36	$72.39	+$1.03	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
AN Anon455<$100	Cowboysavg 64¢	$35.56	$35.83	+$0.28	49% 497-511 (1008)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	49ersavg 34¢	$19.04	$20.16	+$1.12	35% 143-263 (406)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 65¢	$18.24	$12.02	-$1.82	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	49ersavg 35¢	$6.43	$8.18	+$1.75	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
nigiri99<$100	Cowboysavg 65¢	$5.85	$5.81	-$0.04	50% 760-746 (1506)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	49ersavg 36¢	$1.1	$1.1	+$0	57% 3683-2778 (6461)

RN1CTR

49ers

Invested

$431.92

Value

$436.72

PnL

+$4.8

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Aurelius7

Cowboys

Invested

$300

Value

$302.73

PnL

+$2.73

Record

7-143 (150)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

49ers

Invested

$600

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

purplegatto

Cowboys

Invested

$119.9

Value

$119.9

PnL

-$0

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$90

Value

$91

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$71.36

Value

$72.39

PnL

+$1.03

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Anon455<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$35.56

Value

$35.83

PnL

+$0.28

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

OddstormCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$19.04

Value

$20.16

PnL

+$1.12

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$18.24

Value

$12.02

PnL

-$1.82

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LimousinCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$6.43

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$1.75

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

nigiri99<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.81

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

takeormakeCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.