Spread: 49ers (-6.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (70%) · Cowboys at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

49ers42¢Cowboys58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 70%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

-$5.75

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers42%

Cowboys59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys7 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,252

Combined PnL+$30.78

49ers3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,286

Combined PnL-$36.53

Cowboys — 70%49ers — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Cowboysavg 58¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$0	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
LU lugCTR	49ersavg 42¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$35	65% 35-19 (54)
VeryLucky888	Cowboysavg 57.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$26.97	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 58¢	$177.48	$177.48	+$0	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Cowboysavg 58¢	$151.96	$153.27	+$1.31	48% 471-508 (979)
NM NM-P	Cowboysavg 58¢	$145	$146.25	+$1.25	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
GC GC-P	Cowboysavg 58¢	$145	$146.25	+$1.25	42% 548-747 (1295)
PR primmCTR	49ersavg 42¢	$115.92	$114.54	-$1.38	59% 1182-828 (2010)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	49ersavg 43¢	$4.36	$4.21	-$0.15	56% 181-144 (325)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 58¢	$3.48	$3.48	-$0	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

HomeRunHazard

Cowboys

Invested

$4,102.09

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

lugCTR

49ers

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$35

Record

65%

35-19 (54)

VeryLucky888

Cowboys

Invested

$1,341.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.97

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$177.48

Value

$177.48

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Cowboys

Invested

$151.96

Value

$153.27

PnL

+$1.31

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

NM-P

Cowboys

Invested

$145

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

GC-P

Cowboys

Invested

$145

Value

$146.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

primmCTR

49ers

Invested

$115.92

Value

$114.54

PnL

-$1.38

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

181-144 (325)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

43h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCowboys 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.