Spread: 49ers (-20.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (40%) · Cowboys at 93¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

49ers7¢Cowboys93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 40%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$54.3

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 93¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers7%

Cowboys93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,269

Combined PnL+$40.15

49ers6 traders

Total Value$919

Total Shares6,343

Combined PnL+$14.15

Cowboys — 40%49ers — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr49ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 100049ers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Cowboysavg 87¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$53.1	52% 2703-2515 (5218)
TA takeormakeCTR	49ersavg 12.9¢	$749.68	$784.22	+$34.53	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 88.3¢	$555.22	$543.65	-$11.57	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
BO BoomLaLa	Cowboysavg 88¢	$220	$220	+$0	39% 237-371 (608)
NO NotJumpCTR	49ersavg 50¢	$105	$103.95	-$1.05	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 88.2¢	$70.58	$69.2	-$1.38	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	49ersavg 11¢	$11	$13.5	+$2.5	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
nigiri99CTR	49ersavg 12¢	$300.52	$12.2	-$20.33	50% 763-749 (1512)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	49ersavg 11¢	$2.2	$2.7	+$0.5	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	49ersavg 11.9¢	$4.45	$2.44	-$2.01	38% 1426-2282 (3708)

CUTJALENHURTS

Cowboys

Invested

$4,619.7

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$53.1

Record

52%

2703-2515 (5218)

takeormakeCTR

49ers

Invested

$749.68

Value

$784.22

PnL

+$34.53

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$555.22

Value

$543.65

PnL

-$11.57

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

BoomLaLa

Cowboys

Invested

$220

Value

$220

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

237-371 (608)

NotJumpCTR

49ers

Invested

$105

Value

$103.95

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$70.58

Value

$69.2

PnL

-$1.38

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

VenusianCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$11

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

nigiri99CTR

49ers

Invested

$300.52

Value

$12.2

PnL

-$20.33

Record

50%

763-749 (1512)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$4.45

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$2.01

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr49ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 100049ers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.