Spread: 49ers (-1.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (64%) · 49ers at 62¢ · $85K held · ended Nov 15

49ers62¢Cowboys38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$85.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers62%

Cowboys39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers7 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares82,308

Combined PnL+$27.34

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$31.5K

Total Shares80,334

Combined PnL+$1.0K

49ers — 64%Cowboys — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	49ersavg 62¢	$47.2K	$47.2K	-$0	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Cowboysavg 38¢	$25.4K	$26.4K	+$1.0K	42% 624-853 (1477)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Cowboysavg 38¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0	58% 113-81 (194)
PR primm	49ersavg 60¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$22.13	59% 1193-836 (2029)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	49ersavg 61.8¢	$3.4K	$2.5K	-$86.46	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 61.8¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$94.83
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 40¢	$669.6	$677.97	+$8.37
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	49ersavg 62¢	$496	$496	+$0	30% 501-1144 (1645)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 39.5¢	$437.09	$441.67	+$4.58	47% 507-561 (1068)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 39.5¢	$266.05	$266.28	+$0.23
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 59¢	$171.04	$175.39	+$4.35
PU purplegatto	49ersavg 60¢	$254.64	$256.76	+$2.12	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
nigiri99	49ersavg 60¢	$240	$242	+$2	50% 760-746 (1506)
OD OddstormCTR	Cowboysavg 38¢	$106.13	$110.32	+$4.19	35% 143-263 (406)
PA Pan9X<$100	49ersavg 60.4¢	$74.25	$75.65	+$1.39	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	49ersavg 61¢	$37.21	$36.91	-$0.3	52% 420-389 (809)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 37¢	$0.88	$0.9	+$0.02	30% 19-45 (64)

takeormake

49ers

Invested

$47,166.48

Value

$47.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

BreakTheBankCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$25,419.72

Value

$26.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

42%

624-853 (1477)

Siddhartha1CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

primm

49ers

Invested

$2,655.01

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$22.13

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

38791873984189ARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$3,373.1

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$86.46

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

49ers$1,933.3461.8¢-$94.83

Cowboys$669.640¢+$8.37

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

49ers

Invested

$496

Value

$496

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$437.09

Value

$441.67

PnL

+$4.58

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Both legs:

Cowboys$266.0539.5¢+$0.23

49ers$171.0459¢+$4.35

purplegatto

49ers

Invested

$254.64

Value

$256.76

PnL

+$2.12

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

nigiri99

49ers

Invested

$240

Value

$242

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

OddstormCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$106.13

Value

$110.32

PnL

+$4.19

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

Pan9X<$100

49ers

Invested

$74.25

Value

$75.65

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

49ers

Invested

$37.21

Value

$36.91

PnL

-$0.3

Record

52%

420-389 (809)

cocococococoCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

19-45 (64)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.