Spread: 49ers (-16.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (50%) · Cowboys at 82¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 15

49ers19¢Cowboys81¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 50%

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

-$101.06

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 81.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers19%

Cowboys82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares22,461

Combined PnL+$296.47

49ers5 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares26,351

Combined PnL-$397.53

Cowboys — 50%49ers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 100049ers 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Cowboysavg 80¢	$12.5K	$12.7K	+$233.8	50% 747-737 (1484)
TA takeormakeCTR	49ersavg 20¢	$4.8K	$4.4K	-$356.81	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
Painfulvoid	Cowboysavg 80¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$46.43	1% 3-258 (261)
BO BoomLaLa	Cowboysavg 80.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10.82	39% 234-370 (604)
RollAwayTheDew	Cowboysavg 79.7¢	$283.93	$288.6	+$4.67	18% 63-281 (344)
38 38791873984189CTR	49ersavg 20¢	$1.2K	$279.63	-$27.73	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	49ersavg 20¢	$160	$148	-$12	30% 489-1134 (1623)
SE sentrio	Cowboysavg 81¢	$120.95	$121.7	+$0.75	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	49ersavg 20¢	$40.06	$20.54	-$1.12	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	49ersavg 19.8¢	$12.85	$12.97	+$0.12	49% 395-410 (805)

nigiri99

Cowboys

Invested

$12,469.6

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$233.8

Record

50%

747-737 (1484)

takeormakeCTR

49ers

Invested

$4,784.31

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$356.81

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

Painfulvoid

Cowboys

Invested

$3,714.34

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$46.43

Record

3-258 (261)

BoomLaLa

Cowboys

Invested

$1,395.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$10.82

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

RollAwayTheDew

Cowboys

Invested

$283.93

Value

$288.6

PnL

+$4.67

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

38791873984189CTR

49ers

Invested

$1,217.35

Value

$279.63

PnL

-$27.73

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

49ers

Invested

$160

Value

$148

PnL

-$12

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

sentrio

Cowboys

Invested

$120.95

Value

$121.7

PnL

+$0.75

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

Pan9XCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$40.06

Value

$20.54

PnL

-$1.12

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

GaditimaCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$12.85

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

395-410 (805)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 100049ers 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.