Spread: 49ers (-13.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (60%) · Cowboys at 70¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 15

49ers31¢Cowboys69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

-$502.06

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 69.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers31%

Cowboys70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares33,668

Combined PnL-$931.5

49ers4 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares33,716

Combined PnL+$429.43

Cowboys — 60%49ers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Cowboysavg 75.1¢	$16.1K	$15.0K	$-1.1K	50% 760-746 (1506)
CUTJALENHURTS	Cowboysavg 75¢	$7.5K	$7.7K	+$150	52% 2703-2514 (5217)
TA takeormakeCTR	49ersavg 25¢	$7.4K	$7.6K	+$148.51	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 76.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$29.09	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 76.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$29.64
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 25¢	$587.25	$528.53	-$58.73
AN Anon455	Cowboysavg 76.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.81	49% 497-511 (1008)
NE neymar1CTR	49ersavg 24¢	$533.28	$688.82	+$155.54	— 5-14 (19)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Cowboysavg 50¢	$2.5K	$348	-$2	63% 147-86 (233)
LI LightParadoxCTR	49ersavg 23¢	$264.38	$344.84	+$80.46	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE VenusianCTR	49ersavg 23¢	$147.58	$192.5	+$44.92	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
BO BoomLaLa	Cowboysavg 75¢	$187.5	$186.25	-$1.25	39% 237-370 (607)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 75.9¢	$82.11	$34.92	+$0.61	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

nigiri99

Cowboys

Invested

$16,051.06

Value

$15.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

CUTJALENHURTS

Cowboys

Invested

$7,500

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$150

Record

52%

2703-2514 (5217)

takeormakeCTR

49ers

Invested

$7,425.68

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$148.51

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2,403.39

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$29.09

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Cowboys$1,816.1476.3¢+$29.64

49ers$587.2525¢-$58.73

Anon455

Cowboys

Invested

$1,192.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

neymar1CTR

49ers

Invested

$533.28

Value

$688.82

PnL

+$155.54

Record

—

5-14 (19)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Cowboys

Invested

$2,450

Value

$348

PnL

-$2

Record

63%

147-86 (233)

LightParadoxCTR

49ers

Invested

$264.38

Value

$344.84

PnL

+$80.46

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

VenusianCTR

49ers

Invested

$147.58

Value

$192.5

PnL

+$44.92

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

BoomLaLa

Cowboys

Invested

$187.5

Value

$186.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$82.11

Value

$34.92

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.