Spread: 49ers (-10.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (64%) · Cowboys at 73¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 15

49ers28¢Cowboys72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 72.5¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers28%

Cowboys73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys7 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares14,465

Combined PnL+$915.17

49ers4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares16,661

Combined PnL+$123.88

Cowboys — 64%49ers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Cowboys) disagree here.

whaleCowboys 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Cowboysavg 69.8¢	$9.6K	$10.5K	+$919.26	52% 2703-2515 (5218)
TA takeormakeCTR	49ersavg 30.1¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$329.18	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
RN1CTR	49ersavg 31¢	$851.47	$642.43	-$209.05	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
BO BoomLaLa	Cowboysavg 70¢	$175	$172.5	-$2.5	39% 237-371 (608)
65 6512395314597884	Cowboysavg 77¢	$154	$155	+$1	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Cowboysavg 50¢	$850	$138	-$2	64% 150-86 (236)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	49ersavg 50¢	$105	$89.5	+$0.1	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 50¢	$42.5	$65.88	+$28.97
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 50¢	$52.5	$23.63	-$28.88
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	49ersavg 22¢	$66	$67.5	+$1.5	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
nigiri99<$100	Cowboysavg 72¢	$21.6	$22.05	+$0.45	50% 763-749 (1512)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 73.1¢	$38.38	$20.25	-$1.06	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	49ersavg 28¢	$14	$16.25	+$2.25	48% 514-565 (1079)
AN Anon455<$100	Cowboysavg 76¢	$3.45	$3.47	+$0.02	50% 501-511 (1012)

CUTJALENHURTS

Cowboys

Invested

$9,608.9

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$919.26

Record

52%

2703-2515 (5218)

takeormakeCTR

49ers

Invested

$4,170.47

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$329.18

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

RN1CTR

49ers

Invested

$851.47

Value

$642.43

PnL

-$209.05

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

BoomLaLa

Cowboys

Invested

$175

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

39%

237-371 (608)

6512395314597884

Cowboys

Invested

$154

Value

$155

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Cowboys

Invested

$850

Value

$138

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

150-86 (236)

NotJumpARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$105

Value

$89.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Cowboys$42.550¢+$28.97

49ers$52.550¢-$28.88

38791873984189CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$66

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

nigiri99<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$21.6

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

763-749 (1512)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$38.38

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$1.06

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$14

Value

$16.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

48%

514-565 (1079)

Anon455<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (8 on Cowboys) disagree here.

whaleCowboys 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.