Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Seahawks vs. Raiders: O/U 44.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 45¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$71.74

Smart Money Entry

56.3¢ → 44.5¢

-21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,504

Combined PnL+$56.47

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,926

Combined PnL+$15.28

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Underavg 63¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$14.43	69% 1741-780 (2521)
RN1CTR	Underavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$67.87	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 54¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$170	49% 497-511 (1008)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 37¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$14.58	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 53¢	$318	$279	-$39	77% 285-84 (369)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$202	$200	-$2	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$108	$102	-$6
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$94	$98	+$4
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 41¢	$157.85	$169.4	+$11.55	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$105	$101.06	+$0.24	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$52.5	$62.47	+$9.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$47.64	$38.59	-$9.73
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$42.83	$38.9	-$3.93	50% 663-662 (1325)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4.33	$5.02	+$0.69	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.31	$4.7	+$0.39	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$4.18	$3.94	-$0.24	38% 1425-2300 (3725)

SunlineTickerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,818.81

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$14.43

Record

69%

1741-780 (2521)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,553.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$67.87

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$170

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$1,079.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$14.58

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$318

Value

$279

PnL

-$39

Record

77%

285-84 (369)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$202

Value

$200

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Invested

$157.85

Value

$169.4

PnL

+$11.55

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$105

Value

$101.06

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Over$52.550¢+$9.97

Under$47.6450¢-$9.73

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$42.83

Value

$38.9

PnL

-$3.93

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.69

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.39

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.24

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.