Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Seahawks, while the market favors Raiders (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (40%) · Seahawks at 43¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Seahawks
5
Seahawks 40%
1 arb excluded
$9.3K
$89.05
41.9¢ → 42.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSeahawks at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Raiders 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI VirIntrepidusCTR | Seahawksavg 42¢ | $5.2K | $5.3K | +$62.22 | 86% 18-3 (21) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Raidersavg 58¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$23.07 | 48% 4016-4413 (8429) |
| └ Raiders leg | Raidersavg 58¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$17.22 | |
| └ Seahawks leg | Seahawksavg 41¢ | $453.99 | $453.99 | +$5.85 | |
AN Anon455 | Raidersavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$20 | 49% 497-511 (1008) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Raidersavg 58¢ | $395.6 | $401.78 | +$6.18 | 48% 495-537 (1032) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Seahawksavg 41¢ | $292.57 | $292.57 | -$0 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Raidersavg 57.8¢ | $31.8 | $32.45 | +$0.65 | 50% 2214-2221 (4435) |
Invested
$5,226.53
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$62.22
Record
86%
18-3 (21)
Invested
$2,137.2
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$23.07
Record
48%
4016-4413 (8429)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,160
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20
Record
49%
497-511 (1008)
Invested
$395.6
Value
$401.78
PnL
+$6.18
Record
48%
495-537 (1032)
Invested
$292.57
Value
$292.57
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$32.45
PnL
+$0.65
Record
50%
2214-2221 (4435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.