Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (56%) · Seahawks at 54¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks54¢Raiders46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

-$144.74

Smart Money Entry

56.6¢ → 53.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks54%

Raiders47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks10 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares10,887

Combined PnL-$326.92

Raiders8 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,706

Combined PnL+$182.18

Seahawks — 56%Raiders — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seahawksavg 53.1¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$111.19	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Raidersavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$43.86	62% 1073-664 (1737)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Seahawksavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$5.54	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 68¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$369	49% 497-511 (1008)
BI biying88888CTR	Raidersavg 43.3¢	$944.39	$1.1K	+$113.4	43% 247-322 (569)
PR primmCTR	Raidersavg 47.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$29.65	59% 1193-836 (2029)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 53.5¢	$625.72	$613.69	-$12.03	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Raidersavg 45¢	$450	$475	+$25	50% 663-662 (1325)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 60.8¢	$350.89	$265	-$42.28	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
DA darkumbreon88	Seahawksavg 68¢	$142.81	$142.81	+$0	62% 1090-679 (1769)
LI LimousinCTR	Raidersavg 32.3¢	$85.51	$109.89	+$32.45	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seahawksavg 53.6¢	$249.89	$94.37	-$3.48	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 53.6¢	$69.73	$68.25	+$1.56
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 50¢	$27.5	$26.12	-$5.04
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Raidersavg 39¢	$52.88	$65.76	+$12.88	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 60.4¢	$74.59	$44.77	-$7.98	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
TA takeormake<$100	Seahawksavg 61¢	$39.41	$40.64	+$1.23	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
US User7429<$100	Seahawksavg 54¢	$32.34	$35.93	+$3.59	43% 438-577 (1015)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 39¢	$26.44	$32.88	+$6.44	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 39.3¢	$26.44	$32.66	+$6.22	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
CM cm2897<$100	Seahawksavg 64¢	$41.59	$21.09	-$6.11	49% 1251-1296 (2547)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$2,473.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$111.19

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,461.88

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$43.86

Record

62%

1073-664 (1737)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Seahawks

Invested

$1,165.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$5.54

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$1,460

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$369

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

biying88888CTR

Raiders

Invested

$944.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$113.4

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

primmCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,009.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.65

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$625.72

Value

$613.69

PnL

-$12.03

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

justaluckydudeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$450

Value

$475

PnL

+$25

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$350.89

Value

$265

PnL

-$42.28

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

darkumbreon88

Seahawks

Invested

$142.81

Value

$142.81

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1090-679 (1769)

LimousinCTR

Raiders

Invested

$85.51

Value

$109.89

PnL

+$32.45

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$249.89

Value

$94.37

PnL

-$3.48

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Seahawks$69.7353.6¢+$1.56

Raiders$27.550¢-$5.04

VenusianCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$52.88

Value

$65.76

PnL

+$12.88

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$74.59

Value

$44.77

PnL

-$7.98

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

takeormake<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$39.41

Value

$40.64

PnL

+$1.23

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

User7429<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$32.34

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$3.59

Record

43%

438-577 (1015)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$26.44

Value

$32.88

PnL

+$6.44

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$26.44

Value

$32.66

PnL

+$6.22

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

cm2897<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$41.59

Value

$21.09

PnL

-$6.11

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.