Spread: Seahawks (-14.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (44%) · Raiders at 91¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Seahawks9¢Raiders91¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 44%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$75.05

Smart Money Entry

76.9¢ → 91¢

+18% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks9%

Raiders91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders4 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares10,182

Combined PnL-$94.42

Seahawks5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares8,100

Combined PnL+$19.37

Raiders — 44%Seahawks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (7 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaiders 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Raidersavg 76.9¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$75.3	47% 507-561 (1068)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Seahawksavg 23¢	$911.33	$931.14	+$19.81	44% 349-436 (785)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Seahawksavg 23¢	$685.87	$685.87	+$0	18% 63-282 (345)
VeryLucky888	Raidersavg 77¢	$683.76	$674.88	-$8.88	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Raidersavg 77¢	$616	$608	-$8	30% 501-1144 (1645)
38 38791873984189CTR	Seahawksavg 23¢	$246.12	$246.5	+$0.38	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0xheavy888	Raidersavg 77¢	$172.48	$170.24	-$2.24	56% 693-539 (1232)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 24¢	$19.92	$19.09	-$0.83	50% 760-746 (1506)
RN1CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 12¢	$0.16	$0.17	+$0.01	54% 6095-5185 (11280)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Raiders

Invested

$6,360.48

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$75.3

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Forecastication2CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$911.33

Value

$931.14

PnL

+$19.81

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$685.87

Value

$685.87

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

VeryLucky888

Raiders

Invested

$683.76

Value

$674.88

PnL

-$8.88

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Raiders

Invested

$616

Value

$608

PnL

-$8

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

38791873984189CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$246.12

Value

$246.5

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0xheavy888

Raiders

Invested

$172.48

Value

$170.24

PnL

-$2.24

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$19.92

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

RN1CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Raiders) and the top 1000 (7 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaiders 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.