Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 50.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (11%) · Under at 55¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 16

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$34.28

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,372

Combined PnL+$17.81

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,948

Combined PnL+$16.47

Under — 11%Over — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 54.1¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$17.81	51% 793-768 (1561)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.4K	$679.47	+$21.59	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 47¢	$484.1	$473.8	-$10.3	59% 1231-873 (2104)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$338.8	$342.48	+$3.68	43% 589-793 (1382)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$320.05	$325.98	+$5.93	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$182.25	$184.28	+$2.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$137.8	$141.7	+$3.9
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5	59% 3987-2766 (6753)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46.94	$46.94	+$0	47% 536-593 (1129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$33.54	$33.3	-$0.24	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$18.22	$17.46	-$0.76	56% 181-145 (326)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.44	$6.44	+$0	52% 432-402 (834)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,364.93

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$17.81

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,428.95

Value

$679.47

PnL

+$21.59

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$484.1

Value

$473.8

PnL

-$10.3

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$338.8

Value

$342.48

PnL

+$3.68

Record

43%

589-793 (1382)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$320.05

Value

$325.98

PnL

+$5.93

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

Both legs:

Invested

$230

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.94

Value

$46.94

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

536-593 (1129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.54

Value

$33.3

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.22

Value

$17.46

PnL

-$0.76

Record

56%

181-145 (326)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

432-402 (834)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.