Steelers vs. Bengals: O/U 48.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 55¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$10.83

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,152

Combined PnL+$61.43

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,989

Combined PnL-$50.6

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 54¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$60.65	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$23.85	44% 92-115 (207)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$25.25	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 46¢	$374.9	$370.83	-$4.07	45% 74-89 (163)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$177.12	$177	-$0.12	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$169.07	$169.03	-$0.04	42% 548-747 (1295)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$90.35	$67.49	+$3.2	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$65.8	$66.5	+$0.7	48% 471-508 (979)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$27.77	$26.78	-$0.99	67% 49-24 (73)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$15.18	$15.02	-$0.16	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Overavg 49¢	$10.96	$11.74	+$0.78	18% 63-281 (344)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$6,549.95

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$60.65

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$2,194.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$23.85

Record

44%

92-115 (207)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$2,049.87

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.25

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$374.9

Value

$370.83

PnL

-$4.07

Record

45%

74-89 (163)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$177.12

Value

$177

PnL

-$0.12

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$169.07

Value

$169.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.35

Value

$67.49

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.8

Value

$66.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.77

Value

$26.78

PnL

-$0.99

Record

67%

49-24 (73)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.02

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Over

Invested

$10.96

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$0.78

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.