Spread: Bengals (-6.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (78%) · Steelers at 59¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Bengals42¢Steelers58¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Steelers

Consensus Traders

Steelers 78%

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

-$83.43

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bengals42%

Steelers59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Steelers7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares12,871

Combined PnL-$42.51

Bengals2 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares13,375

Combined PnL-$40.92

Steelers — 78%Bengals — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Steelersavg 58.5¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$33.05	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
LU lugCTR	Bengalsavg 42¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$71.58	64% 35-20 (55)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Bengalsavg 41¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$30.67	59% 1150-797 (1947)
HO HomeRunHazard	Steelersavg 58¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$0.09	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
nigiri99	Steelersavg 59¢	$520.97	$516.56	-$4.41	50% 763-749 (1512)
PU purplegatto	Steelersavg 59¢	$341.8	$338.9	-$2.9	68% 2684-1270 (3954)
BO BoomLaLa	Steelersavg 59¢	$147.5	$145	-$2.5	39% 237-371 (608)
NM NM-P	Steelersavg 58¢	$132.88	$134.02	+$1.15	59% 3973-2751 (6724)
PA Pan9X<$100	Steelersavg 59¢	$41.89	$41.18	-$0.71	50% 2219-2233 (4452)

38791873984189

Steelers

Invested

$4,149.88

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$33.05

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

lugCTR

Bengals

Invested

$3,040.67

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$71.58

Record

64%

35-20 (55)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Bengals

Invested

$2,514.76

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$30.67

Record

59%

1150-797 (1947)

HomeRunHazard

Steelers

Invested

$2,181.46

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$0.09

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

nigiri99

Steelers

Invested

$520.97

Value

$516.56

PnL

-$4.41

Record

50%

763-749 (1512)

purplegatto

Steelers

Invested

$341.8

Value

$338.9

PnL

-$2.9

Record

68%

2684-1270 (3954)

BoomLaLa

Steelers

Invested

$147.5

Value

$145

PnL

-$2.5

Record

39%

237-371 (608)

NM-P

Steelers

Invested

$132.88

Value

$134.02

PnL

+$1.15

Record

59%

3973-2751 (6724)

Pan9X<$100

Steelers

Invested

$41.89

Value

$41.18

PnL

-$0.71

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

Research grade

NeutralSteelers at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Steelers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSteelers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Steelers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Steelers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.