Spread: Bengals (-3.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (100%) · Steelers at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Steelers
5
Steelers 100%
$1.6K
$61.01
50¢ → 51.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSteelers at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Steelersavg 50¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$51.38 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Steelersavg 49¢ | $87.48 | $70.8 | +$4.67 | 52% 471-435 (906) |
BA bands1<$100 | Steelersavg 51¢ | $69.87 | $70.56 | +$0.69 | 50% 335-331 (666) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Steelersavg 49¢ | $46.06 | $48.88 | +$2.82 | 48% 1398-1531 (2929) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Steelersavg 50¢ | $36.28 | $37.73 | +$1.45 | 23% 36-119 (155) |
Invested
$1,284.55
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$51.38
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$87.48
Value
$70.8
PnL
+$4.67
Record
52%
471-435 (906)
Invested
$69.87
Value
$70.56
PnL
+$0.69
Record
50%
335-331 (666)
Invested
$46.06
Value
$48.88
PnL
+$2.82
Record
48%
1398-1531 (2929)
Invested
$36.28
Value
$37.73
PnL
+$1.45
Record
23%
36-119 (155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.