Steelers vs. Bengals

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (50%) · Bengals at 64¢ · $82 held · ends Nov 16

Steelers36¢Bengals64¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 50%

Total Value

$81.62

Combined PnL

-$3.86

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers36%

Bengals64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals2 traders

Total Value$50.82

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$0.46

Steelers2 traders

Total Value$30.79

Total Shares77

Combined PnL-$4.33

Bengals — 50%Steelers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 62¢	$12.4	$25.68	+$0.46	47% 329-371 (700)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Bengalsavg 64¢	$25.15	$25.15	+$0	7% 7-88 (95)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Steelersavg 42.8¢	$24.51	$20.52	-$3.99	51% 62-60 (122)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Steelersavg 35¢	$5.5	$10.27	-$0.34	48% 603-645 (1248)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$12.4

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$0.46

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

Oddstorm<$100

Bengals

Invested

$25.15

Value

$25.15

PnL

+$0

Record

7-88 (95)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$24.51

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$3.99

Record

51%

62-60 (122)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$5.5

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$0.34

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.