Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 42.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 77¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 2

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.1K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 76.5¢

+38% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares44,089

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Over1 trader

Total Value$130.81

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$15.97

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$7.2K	$5.9K	$-1.3K	54% 17416-14612 (32028)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 55¢	$6.7K	$5.5K	$-1.2K	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55.8¢	$4.5K	$3.2K	-$881.25	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 55.8¢	$3.8K	$3.0K	-$732.54	59% 4081-2894 (6975)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 55.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$322.9	83% 2713-550 (3263)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 55¢	$1.8K	$790.91	-$209.09	54% 741-625 (1366)
0xheavy888	Underavg 55.3¢	$372.94	$303.3	-$69.64	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 35.9¢	$146.78	$130.81	-$15.97	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 65¢	$65	$68	+$3	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
TA takeormake<$100	Underavg 66¢	$39.6	$43.5	+$3.9	53% 4359-3820 (8179)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,225.53

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

17416-14612 (32028)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$6,715.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$4,460

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$881.25

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$3,779.52

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$732.54

Record

59%

4081-2894 (6975)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$1,109.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$322.9

Record

83%

2713-550 (3263)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,818.18

Value

$790.91

PnL

-$209.09

Record

54%

741-625 (1366)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$372.94

Value

$303.3

PnL

-$69.64

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$146.78

Value

$130.81

PnL

-$15.97

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$65

Value

$68

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

takeormake<$100

Under

Invested

$39.6

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$3.9

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.