Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 40.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 27¢ · $193K held · ended Nov 2

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$192.9K

Combined PnL

$12.7K

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 26.5¢

-48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$88.7K

Total Shares145,236

Combined PnL+$14.6K

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares21,385

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$88.8K	$88.0K	-$826.84	46% 464-539 (1003)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$45.0K	$53.8K	+$8.8K
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$43.8K	$34.2K	$-9.6K
PW PwaddlerCTR	Overavg 51¢	$42.2K	$50.5K	+$8.3K	48% 423-459 (882)
SI sinasinnerCTR	Overavg 51¢	$30.6K	$36.9K	+$6.3K	47% 32-36 (68)
heyboy800	Underavg 49¢	$5.4K	$4.2K	$-1.1K	61% 987-628 (1615)
0X 0x0A77exmmARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$31.22	53% 2347-2043 (4390)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$30
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$61.22
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.3K	$3.8K	-$453.54	54% 3443-2988 (6431)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$723.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$269.85
JustADonk	Underavg 50¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$575	55% 903-749 (1652)
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 37.5¢	$817.89	$827.14	+$35.56	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
RN1CTR	Overavg 56.5¢	$601.15	$663.64	+$62.49	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
CA cavvvy	Underavg 47¢	$578.79	$517.22	-$61.57	52% 12-11 (23)
0xheavy888	Underavg 50¢	$562.5	$438.75	-$123.75	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 49¢	$400.3	$316.3	-$84	83% 2713-550 (3263)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 53¢	$259.17	$300.74	+$41.57	54% 3119-2685 (5804)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$380.52	$276.47	-$104.05	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$54.2	$73.46	+$19.26	50% 19648-20016 (39664)
tradecraft<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$44.9	$38.35	-$5.49	51% 6132-5855 (11987)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51¢	$24.48	$18.48	-$6	57% 29485-21828 (51313)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$88,829.42

Value

$88.0K

PnL

-$826.84

Record

46%

464-539 (1003)

Both legs:

Over$44,972.0451¢+$8.8K

Under$43,848.6550¢$-9.6K

PwaddlerCTR

Over

Invested

$42,236.8

Value

$50.5K

PnL

+$8.3K

Record

48%

423-459 (882)

sinasinnerCTR

Over

Invested

$30,600

Value

$36.9K

PnL

+$6.3K

Record

47%

32-36 (68)

heyboy800

Under

Invested

$5,443.93

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

987-628 (1615)

0x0A77exmmARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,812.1

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$31.22

Record

53%

2347-2043 (4390)

Both legs:

Under$2,999.8949.5¢-$30

Over$1,499.8949¢+$61.22

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$4,281.28

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$453.54

Record

54%

3443-2988 (6431)

Both legs:

Under$3,151.8450¢-$723.38

Over$1,128.8949.6¢+$269.85

JustADonk

Under

Invested

$2,500

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$575

Record

55%

903-749 (1652)

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$817.89

Value

$827.14

PnL

+$35.56

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$601.15

Value

$663.64

PnL

+$62.49

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

cavvvy

Under

Invested

$578.79

Value

$517.22

PnL

-$61.57

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$562.5

Value

$438.75

PnL

-$123.75

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$400.3

Value

$316.3

PnL

-$84

Record

83%

2713-550 (3263)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$259.17

Value

$300.74

PnL

+$41.57

Record

54%

3119-2685 (5804)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$380.52

Value

$276.47

PnL

-$104.05

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.2

Value

$73.46

PnL

+$19.26

Record

50%

19648-20016 (39664)

tradecraft<$100

Under

Invested

$44.9

Value

$38.35

PnL

-$5.49

Record

51%

6132-5855 (11987)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$24.48

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$6

Record

57%

29485-21828 (51313)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.