Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Eagles vs. Commanders: O/U 38.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 40¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$1.2K
-$161.85
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR DreamwireCTR | Overavg 49.2¢ | $782.03 | $651.88 | -$130.15 | 83% 2713-550 (3263) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 52¢ | $443.02 | $472.95 | +$29.93 | 53% 11153-9754 (20907) |
PR primm<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $74.18 | $40.59 | -$33.59 | 47% 1179-1337 (2516) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $35.1 | $20.3 | -$14.8 | 53% 4359-3820 (8179) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $23.61 | $16.41 | -$7.2 | 55% 7414-5959 (13373) |
AM AmericaFirst1<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $13.04 | $7 | -$6.04 | 62% 2217-1351 (3568) |
Invested
$782.03
Value
$651.88
PnL
-$130.15
Record
83%
2713-550 (3263)
Invested
$443.02
Value
$472.95
PnL
+$29.93
Record
53%
11153-9754 (20907)
Invested
$74.18
Value
$40.59
PnL
-$33.59
Record
47%
1179-1337 (2516)
Invested
$35.1
Value
$20.3
PnL
-$14.8
Record
53%
4359-3820 (8179)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$23.61
Value
$16.41
PnL
-$7.2
Record
55%
7414-5959 (13373)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$7
PnL
-$6.04
Record
62%
2217-1351 (3568)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.