Spread: Commanders (-9.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (75%) · Eagles at 72¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Eagles
4
Eagles 75%
1 arb excluded
$8.2K
$549.52
70.8¢ → 72¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEagles at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 unknowngambler | Eaglesavg 71¢ | $6.6K | $7.1K | +$463.63 | 58% 403-293 (696) |
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | Eaglesavg 69¢ | $718.29 | $791.16 | +$72.87 | 55% 1276-1054 (2330) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Eaglesavg 71¢ | $195.53 | $209.3 | +$13.77 | 53% 469-408 (877) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Commandersavg 29¢ | $150.23 | $119 | -$31.23 | 53% 11153-9754 (20907) |
| └ Commanders leg | Commandersavg 29¢ | $100.63 | $69.4 | -$31.23 | |
| └ Eagles leg | Eaglesavg 80¢ | $49.6 | $49.6 | +$0 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Commandersavg 29¢ | $4.35 | $3.6 | -$0.75 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
unknowngamblerInvested
$6,645.4
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$463.63
Record
58%
403-293 (696)
Invested
$718.29
Value
$791.16
PnL
+$72.87
Record
55%
1276-1054 (2330)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$195.53
Value
$209.3
PnL
+$13.77
Record
53%
469-408 (877)
Invested
$150.23
Value
$119
PnL
-$31.23
Record
53%
11153-9754 (20907)
Both legs:
Invested
$4.35
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.75
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.