Spread: Commanders (-7.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (67%) · Eagles at 67¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 2

Commanders34¢Eagles66¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 67%

Total Value

$42.5K

Combined PnL

-$763.36

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 66.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Commanders34%

Eagles67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares40,161

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Commanders3 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares46,967

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Eagles — 67%Commanders — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Eaglesavg 60¢	$13.5K	$15.2K	+$1.7K	50% 5973-6047 (12020)
SI Siddhartha1CTR	Commandersavg 40¢	$16.0K	$13.0K	$-3.0K	50% 62-61 (123)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 60¢	$3.9K	$4.4K	+$491.05	54% 17416-14612 (32028)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Eaglesavg 67¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$24.1	55% 1276-1054 (2330)
KC Kch-Temp	Eaglesavg 58¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$368.68	51% 225-219 (444)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Commandersavg 41.5¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$342.42	54% 3443-2988 (6431)
Nooserac	Eaglesavg 68¢	$894.88	$888.3	-$6.58	52% 5865-5454 (11319)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Commandersavg 36¢	$750	$760.42	+$10.42	46% 380-445 (825)
MA manoamano<$100	Eaglesavg 59¢	$49.43	$54.88	+$5.45	51% 516-489 (1005)

purplegatto

Eagles

Invested

$13,487.38

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

5973-6047 (12020)

Siddhartha1CTR

Commanders

Invested

$16,000

Value

$13.0K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

50%

62-61 (123)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$3,928.36

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$491.05

Record

54%

17416-14612 (32028)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Eagles

Invested

$3,228.73

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$24.1

Record

55%

1276-1054 (2330)

Kch-Temp

Eagles

Invested

$2,851.1

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$368.68

Record

51%

225-219 (444)

HerdoniaCTR

Commanders

Invested

$2,027.37

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$342.42

Record

54%

3443-2988 (6431)

Nooserac

Eagles

Invested

$894.88

Value

$888.3

PnL

-$6.58

Record

52%

5865-5454 (11319)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Commanders

Invested

$750

Value

$760.42

PnL

+$10.42

Record

46%

380-445 (825)

manoamano<$100

Eagles

Invested

$49.43

Value

$54.88

PnL

+$5.45

Record

51%

516-489 (1005)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpCommanders 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.