Spread: Commanders (-5.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (40%) · Commanders at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Commanders
5
Commanders 40%
$4.3K
$70.73
52¢ → 54.5¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCommanders at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Commandersavg 52¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$125 | 50% 1184-1181 (2365) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Eaglesavg 48¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$44.21 | 58% 41483-30101 (71584) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Eaglesavg 48¢ | $209.76 | $198.84 | -$10.93 | 46% 7901-9318 (17219) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Commandersavg 51¢ | $13.26 | $14.17 | +$0.91 | 54% 2975-2554 (5529) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 47¢ | $1.41 | $1.36 | -$0.04 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
Invested
$2,600
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$125
Record
50%
1184-1181 (2365)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,440
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$44.21
Record
58%
41483-30101 (71584)
Invested
$209.76
Value
$198.84
PnL
-$10.93
Record
46%
7901-9318 (17219)
Invested
$13.26
Value
$14.17
PnL
+$0.91
Record
54%
2975-2554 (5529)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.