Spread: Commanders (-3.5)

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (44%) · Commanders at 56¢ · $76K held · ended Nov 2

Commanders56¢Eagles44¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$75.8K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 56.5¢

+7% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 18 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders56%

Eagles44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders8 traders

Total Value$54.5K

Total Shares98,219

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Eagles10 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares31,796

Combined PnL-$156.1

Commanders — 44%Eagles — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (8 on Commanders) disagree here.

whaleEagles 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrEagles 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Commandersavg 54¢	$23.4K	$24.3K	+$868.01	48% 423-459 (882)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Commandersavg 45.5¢	$8.8K	$10.8K	+$1.4K	46% 464-539 (1003)
BA BanfieldChris	Commandersavg 53.9¢	$9.2K	$9.6K	+$353.02	54% 19-16 (35)
LI lightotunnel35	Commandersavg 57¢	$6.9K	$6.5K	-$422.28	57% 79-59 (138)
RN1ARB<$100	Eaglesavg 49¢	$5.8K	$6.3K	+$441.8	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 49¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$747.37
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 49.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$305.57
TA takeormakeCTR	Eaglesavg 54¢	$5.7K	$5.1K	-$757.06	53% 4359-3820 (8179)
zb8CTR	Eaglesavg 43¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$280.29	53% 641-561 (1202)
ME metski29	Commandersavg 57¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$245.61	45% 312-384 (696)
PR primmCTR	Eaglesavg 48.5¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$260.2	47% 1179-1337 (2516)
VeryLucky888CTR	Eaglesavg 43¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$514.03	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Eaglesavg 47.1¢	$517.47	$571.69	+$54.22	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Eaglesavg 46¢	$345	$382.5	+$37.5	59% 30767-21484 (52251)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Eaglesavg 49¢	$330.87	$354.75	+$23.88	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Eaglesavg 51¢	$317.36	$273.8	-$43.56	62% 2217-1351 (3568)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 48¢	$60.48	$55.44	-$5.04	50% 3986-3973 (7959)
RL RLWG<$100	Commandersavg 54¢	$56.65	$49.5	-$4.2	50% 8012-8034 (16046)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 46¢	$20.64	$10.01	-$0.15	56% 14473-11230 (25703)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Commandersavg 58.3¢	$8.06	$7.46	-$0.6	57% 29485-21828 (51313)
EdZachary<$100	Commandersavg 54¢	$4.22	$4.38	+$0.16	41% 102-148 (250)

Pwaddler

Commanders

Invested

$23,436.3

Value

$24.3K

PnL

+$868.01

Record

48%

423-459 (882)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Commanders

Invested

$8,814.29

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

46%

464-539 (1003)

BanfieldChris

Commanders

Invested

$9,239.78

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$353.02

Record

54%

19-16 (35)

lightotunnel35

Commanders

Invested

$6,877.23

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$422.28

Record

57%

79-59 (138)

RN1ARB<$100

Eagles

Invested

$5,826.75

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$441.8

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

Both legs:

Eagles$3,848.3949¢+$747.37

Commanders$1,978.3649.1¢-$305.57

takeormakeCTR

Eagles

Invested

$5,680.84

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$757.06

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

zb8CTR

Eagles

Invested

$3,013

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$280.29

Record

53%

641-561 (1202)

metski29

Commanders

Invested

$3,499.99

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$245.61

Record

45%

312-384 (696)

primmCTR

Eagles

Invested

$2,806

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$260.2

Record

47%

1179-1337 (2516)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eagles

Invested

$1,866.72

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$514.03

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

justaluckydudeCTR

Eagles

Invested

$517.47

Value

$571.69

PnL

+$54.22

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Eagles

Invested

$345

Value

$382.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

59%

30767-21484 (52251)

UpTheBluesCTR

Eagles

Invested

$330.87

Value

$354.75

PnL

+$23.88

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Eagles

Invested

$317.36

Value

$273.8

PnL

-$43.56

Record

62%

2217-1351 (3568)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$60.48

Value

$55.44

PnL

-$5.04

Record

50%

3986-3973 (7959)

RLWG<$100

Commanders

Invested

$56.65

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$4.2

Record

50%

8012-8034 (16046)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$20.64

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

14473-11230 (25703)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Commanders

Invested

$8.06

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.6

Record

57%

29485-21828 (51313)

EdZachary<$100

Commanders

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.16

Record

41%

102-148 (250)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

8 of 18 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Eagles) and the top 1000 (8 on Commanders) disagree here.

whaleEagles 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrEagles 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Commanders 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.