Spread: Commanders (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (44%) · Commanders at 74¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 2

Commanders74¢Eagles26¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$746.05

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 73.5¢

+30% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Commanders74%

Eagles27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders4 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares10,652

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Eagles5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares7,862

Combined PnL-$362.31

Commanders — 44%Eagles — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d	Commandersavg 56.4¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$727.82	52% 149-140 (289)
RN1ARB<$100	Commandersavg 58.9¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$255.14	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 58.9¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$241.63
└ Eagles leg	Eaglesavg 33.5¢	$833.97	$847.48	+$13.51
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Eaglesavg 36.5¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$51.64	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
EdZachary	Commandersavg 67¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$24.2	41% 102-148 (250)
0X 0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9	Commandersavg 35¢	$435.4	$821.04	+$404.3	48% 546-599 (1145)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Eaglesavg 58¢	$750	$439.66	-$303.88	46% 380-445 (825)
FO forecastication4CTR	Eaglesavg 33¢	$344.01	$354.44	+$10.42	50% 1219-1239 (2458)
RL RLWG<$100	Commandersavg 67¢	$60.3	$60.75	+$0.45	50% 8012-8034 (16046)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 41.4¢	$65.47	$53.72	-$11.75	53% 4359-3820 (8179)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Eaglesavg 48.3¢	$18.48	$13.02	-$5.47	53% 11153-9754 (20907)

0xfd8ff771a52c22a8a29a3156572d9b3e47fd761d

Commanders

Invested

$3,893.7

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$727.82

Record

52%

149-140 (289)

RN1ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$2,837

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$255.14

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

Both legs:

Commanders$2,003.0358.9¢+$241.63

Eagles$833.9733.5¢+$13.51

UpTheBluesCTR

Eagles

Invested

$1,943.81

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$51.64

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

EdZachary

Commanders

Invested

$1,621.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$24.2

Record

41%

102-148 (250)

0x8f121cc492d8fef3e6ba3a51e33d6c4b5afaeeb9

Commanders

Invested

$435.4

Value

$821.04

PnL

+$404.3

Record

48%

546-599 (1145)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Eagles

Invested

$750

Value

$439.66

PnL

-$303.88

Record

46%

380-445 (825)

forecastication4CTR

Eagles

Invested

$344.01

Value

$354.44

PnL

+$10.42

Record

50%

1219-1239 (2458)

RLWG<$100

Commanders

Invested

$60.3

Value

$60.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

8012-8034 (16046)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$65.47

Value

$53.72

PnL

-$11.75

Record

53%

4359-3820 (8179)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Eagles

Invested

$18.48

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$5.47

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEagles 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.