Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Commanders (77%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Commanders (-1.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (63%) · Eagles at 23¢ · $879 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Eagles
8
Eagles 63%
$878.84
-$38.96
38.2¢ → 23¢
-40% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidEagles at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Eaglesavg 35¢ | $351.75 | $412.05 | +$60.3 | 47% 1179-1337 (2516) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Eaglesavg 36.1¢ | $213.64 | $195.36 | -$18.28 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Eaglesavg 53.5¢ | $169.04 | $93.16 | -$75.88 | 48% 9522-10247 (19769) |
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 36¢ | $61.8 | $70.38 | +$8.58 | 62% 2217-1351 (3568) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Commandersavg 70.4¢ | $69.6 | $58.35 | -$11.25 | 53% 11153-9754 (20907) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Commandersavg 62.5¢ | $25.24 | $23.84 | -$1.4 | 53% 4359-3820 (8179) |
 RN1<$100 | Commandersavg 64.4¢ | $25.02 | $23.36 | -$1.66 | 54% 57635-49887 (107522) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 30¢ | $1.71 | $2.34 | +$0.63 | 56% 14473-11230 (25703) |
Invested
$351.75
Value
$412.05
PnL
+$60.3
Record
47%
1179-1337 (2516)
Invested
$213.64
Value
$195.36
PnL
-$18.28
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$169.04
Value
$93.16
PnL
-$75.88
Record
48%
9522-10247 (19769)
Invested
$61.8
Value
$70.38
PnL
+$8.58
Record
62%
2217-1351 (3568)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$58.35
PnL
-$11.25
Record
53%
11153-9754 (20907)
Invested
$25.24
Value
$23.84
PnL
-$1.4
Record
53%
4359-3820 (8179)
RN1<$100Invested
$25.02
Value
$23.36
PnL
-$1.66
Record
54%
57635-49887 (107522)
Invested
$1.71
Value
$2.34
PnL
+$0.63
Record
56%
14473-11230 (25703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.