Spread: Commanders (-14.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (100%) · Eagles at 78¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Eagles
6
Eagles 100%
$16.2K
-$94.69
78¢ → 77.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEagles at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
48h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Eaglesavg 78¢ | $12.6K | $12.5K | -$80.88 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 VeryLucky888 | Eaglesavg 78¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$14.97 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Eaglesavg 78¢ | $780 | $780 | +$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
UP UpTheBlues | Eaglesavg 78¢ | $488.28 | $485.15 | -$3.13 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Eaglesavg 78.3¢ | $44.63 | $44.18 | -$0.45 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
RO royalestake<$100 | Eaglesavg 78¢ | $39 | $39 | -$0.25 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
Invested
$12,620.61
Value
$12.5K
PnL
-$80.88
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,344.35
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$14.97
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$780
Value
$780
PnL
+$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$488.28
Value
$485.15
PnL
-$3.13
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$44.63
Value
$44.18
PnL
-$0.45
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$39
Value
$39
PnL
-$0.25
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.