Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Commanders (84%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (57%) · Eagles at 17¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Eagles
7
Eagles 57%
$6.4K
$-1.3K
47¢ → 16.5¢
-65% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidEagles at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Commandersavg 71.8¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$186.39 | 54% 57635-49887 (107522) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Eaglesavg 58¢ | $3.1K | $1.8K | $-1.8K | 53% 4359-3820 (8179) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYear | Commandersavg 42¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | +$607.14 | 46% 380-445 (825) |
PR primmCTR | Eaglesavg 28¢ | $707 | $858.5 | +$151.5 | 47% 1179-1337 (2516) |
AM AmericaFirst1CTR | Eaglesavg 29¢ | $124.18 | $145.59 | +$21.41 | 62% 2217-1351 (3568) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 29¢ | $53.52 | $47.98 | -$5.54 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Commandersavg 69.9¢ | $39.02 | $38.61 | -$0.41 | 53% 11153-9754 (20907) |
RN1Invested
$2,313.46
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$186.39
Record
54%
57635-49887 (107522)
Invested
$3,137.38
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
53%
4359-3820 (8179)
Invested
$1,785.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$607.14
Record
46%
380-445 (825)
Invested
$707
Value
$858.5
PnL
+$151.5
Record
47%
1179-1337 (2516)
Invested
$124.18
Value
$145.59
PnL
+$21.41
Record
62%
2217-1351 (3568)
Invested
$53.52
Value
$47.98
PnL
-$5.54
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$39.02
Value
$38.61
PnL
-$0.41
Record
53%
11153-9754 (20907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.