Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Eagles, while the market favors Commanders (71%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Eagles vs. Commanders
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (33%) · Eagles at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Eagles
6
Eagles 33%
$2.4K
$470.6
30¢ → 29.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidEagles at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Commanders 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR | Eaglesavg 30¢ | $1.0K | $1.7K | +$683.33 | 45% 129-156 (285) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Commandersavg 70¢ | $452.9 | $320.27 | -$132.64 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Commandersavg 70¢ | $240.92 | $201.95 | -$38.97 | 49% 19048-19445 (38493) |
38 38791873984189 | Commandersavg 70¢ | $196.11 | $160.52 | -$35.6 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Commandersavg 62¢ | $27.62 | $22.05 | -$5.57 | 53% 11542-10038 (21580) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Eaglesavg 29¢ | $2.45 | $2.49 | +$0.04 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$683.33
Record
45%
129-156 (285)
Invested
$452.9
Value
$320.27
PnL
-$132.64
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
Invested
$240.92
Value
$201.95
PnL
-$38.97
Record
49%
19048-19445 (38493)
Invested
$196.11
Value
$160.52
PnL
-$35.6
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$27.62
Value
$22.05
PnL
-$5.57
Record
53%
11542-10038 (21580)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.49
PnL
+$0.04
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.