Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jets vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 47¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 8

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.3K

Combined PnL

-$197.73

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares27,591

Combined PnL-$261.7

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares21,827

Combined PnL+$63.97

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

104h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2CTR	Underavg 46.9¢	$10.7K	$10.6K	-$88.77	53% 372-326 (698)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$110.38	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Overavg 54.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$44.44	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	+$12.83	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$180	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
0xheavy888	Overavg 55¢	$618.75	$601.88	-$16.88	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 53¢	$294.04	$388.74	+$3.8	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$265	$267.5	+$2.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$114.72	$121.24	+$1.3
GC GC-P	Overavg 53¢	$265	$267.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$246.65	$253.89	+$7.24	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 45.1¢	$65.1	$67.14	+$2.04	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Overavg 57.7¢	$49.76	$49.56	-$0.43	46% 931-1099 (2030)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$27.48	$26.7	-$0.34	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$27.28	$25.47	-$1.21	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$18.45	$17.79	-$0.66	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

gmpm2CTR

Under

Invested

$10,675.89

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$88.77

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$8,083.73

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$110.38

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Over

Invested

$2,421.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$44.44

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,967.08

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.83

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Bagwell306CTR

Under

Invested

$1,880

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$180

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$618.75

Value

$601.88

PnL

-$16.88

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$294.04

Value

$388.74

PnL

+$3.8

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Invested

$265

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$246.65

Value

$253.89

PnL

+$7.24

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.1

Value

$67.14

PnL

+$2.04

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Over

Invested

$49.76

Value

$49.56

PnL

-$0.43

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.48

Value

$26.7

PnL

-$0.34

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.28

Value

$25.47

PnL

-$1.21

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.45

Value

$17.79

PnL

-$0.66

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

104h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.