Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Jets (64%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chiefs (-8.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (30%) · Chiefs at 37¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs37¢Jets63¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 30%

Total Value

$40.7K

Combined PnL

-$612.51

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 36.5¢

-28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs37%

Jets64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs3 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares45,350

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Jets7 traders

Total Value$20.7K

Total Shares36,720

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Chiefs — 30%Jets — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrJets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Chiefsavg 52¢	$21.6K	$18.5K	$-3.1K	41% 643-941 (1584)
TA takeormake	Jetsavg 48¢	$31.7K	$17.6K	+$2.4K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Jetsavg 61.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$49.14	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1CTR	Chiefsavg 37.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$21.7	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
GC GC-P	Jetsavg 48¢	$500	$277.5	+$37.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Chiefsavg 38¢	$557.53	$248.1	+$36.24	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
VeryLucky888	Jetsavg 48¢	$220	$222	+$2	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
CM cm2897<$100	Jetsavg 57¢	$83.52	$93.04	+$9.52	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Jetsavg 49¢	$68.88	$68.27	-$0.62	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
NM NM-P	Jetsavg 48¢	$109	$60.5	+$8.18	57% 22335-16609 (38944)

BreakTheBankCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$21,597.09

Value

$18.5K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

takeormake

Jets

Invested

$31,700.35

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Jets

Invested

$2,380.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$49.14

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,211.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$21.7

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

GC-P

Jets

Invested

$500

Value

$277.5

PnL

+$37.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$557.53

Value

$248.1

PnL

+$36.24

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

VeryLucky888

Jets

Invested

$220

Value

$222

PnL

+$2

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

cm2897<$100

Jets

Invested

$83.52

Value

$93.04

PnL

+$9.52

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Jets

Invested

$68.88

Value

$68.27

PnL

-$0.62

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

NM-P

Jets

Invested

$109

Value

$60.5

PnL

+$8.18

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 67% · 6

Diverging

ctrJets 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.