Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (56%) · Chiefs at 74¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 8

Chiefs74¢Jets26¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 56%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

-$11.81

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 73.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs74%

Jets27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs5 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares24,101

Combined PnL+$569

Jets4 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares23,916

Combined PnL-$580.81

Chiefs — 56%Jets — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJets 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Chiefsavg 71.8¢	$9.6K	$9.8K	+$299.3	54% 18308-15405 (33713)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 29¢	$6.7K	$6.1K	-$573.68	52% 4958-4509 (9467)
RollAwayTheDew	Chiefsavg 71.6¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$190.64	54% 530-448 (978)
BA Bayupati	Chiefsavg 71.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$45.96	49% 265-276 (541)
IC ic4cream	Chiefsavg 71.6¢	$487.72	$500.53	+$17.03	56% 2776-2190 (4966)
OD Oddstorm	Chiefsavg 71.6¢	$460.5	$472.61	+$16.08	48% 7419-7957 (15376)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jetsavg 27.5¢	$192.58	$185.39	-$7.19	48% 61747-66610 (128357)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Jetsavg 26¢	$1.76	$1.76	+$0.03	48% 7431-8151 (15582)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jetsavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.3	+$0.03	50% 8337-8395 (16732)

HomeRunHazard

Chiefs

Invested

$9,560.77

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$299.3

Record

54%

18308-15405 (33713)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$6,719.43

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$573.68

Record

52%

4958-4509 (9467)

RollAwayTheDew

Chiefs

Invested

$5,413.95

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$190.64

Record

54%

530-448 (978)

Bayupati

Chiefs

Invested

$1,316.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$45.96

Record

49%

265-276 (541)

ic4cream

Chiefs

Invested

$487.72

Value

$500.53

PnL

+$17.03

Record

56%

2776-2190 (4966)

Oddstorm

Chiefs

Invested

$460.5

Value

$472.61

PnL

+$16.08

Record

48%

7419-7957 (15376)

38791873984189CTR

Jets

Invested

$192.58

Value

$185.39

PnL

-$7.19

Record

48%

61747-66610 (128357)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

7431-8151 (15582)

RLWGCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

8337-8395 (16732)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJets 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.