Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chiefs, while the market favors Jets (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (75%) · Chiefs at 44¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 8

Chiefs44¢Jets56¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 75%

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

-$154.05

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 43.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs44%

Jets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets2 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares14,334

Combined PnL+$238.49

Chiefs6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares18,728

Combined PnL-$392.54

Jets — 25%Chiefs — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Jetsavg 53.8¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$238.05	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chiefsavg 47¢	$6.0K	$5.5K	-$316.86	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chiefsavg 45¢	$39.36	$1.3K	+$2.4	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Chiefsavg 46¢	$1,000	$934.78	-$65.22	55% 790-658 (1448)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chiefsavg 45.9¢	$225.66	$218.48	-$7.18	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Chiefsavg 46¢	$169.74	$158.67	-$5.54	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Jetsavg 55.7¢	$49.76	$49.55	+$0.45	46% 931-1099 (2030)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 45¢	$8.25	$14.7	-$0.15	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

takeormake

Jets

Invested

$7,667.59

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$238.05

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$5,975.74

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$316.86

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$39.36

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

pltrkr111CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,000

Value

$934.78

PnL

-$65.22

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$225.66

Value

$218.48

PnL

-$7.18

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SnakeBallCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$169.74

Value

$158.67

PnL

-$5.54

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Jets

Invested

$49.76

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$8.25

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Jets 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.