Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Chiefs (94%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Jets (-10.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (90%) · Jets at 6.0¢ · $961 held · ended Nov 8

Jets6¢Chiefs94¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 90%

Total Value

$961.31

Combined PnL

$16.72

Smart Money Entry

3.8¢ → 6¢

+60% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidJets at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 94%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jets6%

Chiefs94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets9 traders

Total Value$920.08

Total Shares22,080

Combined PnL+$16.71

Chiefs1 trader

Total Value$41.24

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.01

Jets — 90%Chiefs — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrJets 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 3.9¢	$593.3	$571.72	-$21.58	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
LI LimousinCTR	Jetsavg 3.6¢	$2.9K	$121.2	+$15.41	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Jetsavg 3.1¢	$65.66	$86.43	+$20.78	54% 591-497 (1088)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jetsavg 3.9¢	$43.33	$42.33	-$1	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 95.6¢	$43	$41.24	+$0.01	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jetsavg 3.6¢	$38.65	$41	+$2.36	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Jetsavg 3.6¢	$22.04	$25.34	+$3.3	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
PU purplegattoCTR	Jetsavg 4.8¢	$607	$25.19	-$3.85	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Jetsavg 3.2¢	$145.31	$6.03	+$1.38	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Jetsavg 3.6¢	$0.91	$0.83	-$0.08	57% 22329-16593 (38922)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$593.3

Value

$571.72

PnL

-$21.58

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

LimousinCTR

Jets

Invested

$2,920.6

Value

$121.2

PnL

+$15.41

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$65.66

Value

$86.43

PnL

+$20.78

Record

54%

591-497 (1088)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$43.33

Value

$42.33

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$43

Value

$41.24

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$38.65

Value

$41

PnL

+$2.36

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$22.04

Value

$25.34

PnL

+$3.3

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

purplegattoCTR

Jets

Invested

$607

Value

$25.19

PnL

-$3.85

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

MadridTimeCTR

Jets

Invested

$145.31

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

NM-PCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.08

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Research grade

AvoidJets at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 94%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrJets 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Jets 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.