Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (86%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 36.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 14¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$4.0K
$-1.4K
54.1¢ → 14¢
-74% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 53.8¢ | $721.12 | $1.0K | +$318.16 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 52¢ | $1.3K | $999.73 | +$328.94 | 50% 48547-48163 (96710) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR | Overavg 55.1¢ | $1.8K | $922.03 | -$925.37 | 50% 5197-5095 (10292) |
SI Siddhartha1 | Underavg 48¢ | $1.2K | $584.58 | -$662.52 | 49% 64-67 (131) |
BI biying88888 | Underavg 43¢ | $878.11 | $459.48 | -$418.63 | 48% 233-252 (485) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $56.87 | $12.8 | -$13.93 | 48% 2081-2289 (4370) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $7.9 | +$1.5 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
nigiri99CTRInvested
$721.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$318.16
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$1,289.98
Value
$999.73
PnL
+$328.94
Record
50%
48547-48163 (96710)
Invested
$1,847.41
Value
$922.03
PnL
-$925.37
Record
50%
5197-5095 (10292)
Invested
$1,247.1
Value
$584.58
PnL
-$662.52
Record
49%
64-67 (131)
Invested
$878.11
Value
$459.48
PnL
-$418.63
Record
48%
233-252 (485)
Invested
$56.87
Value
$12.8
PnL
-$13.93
Record
48%
2081-2289 (4370)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$1.5
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.