Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 34.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 39¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 8

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$529.76

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 38.5¢

-17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,782

Combined PnL+$324.24

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,713

Combined PnL+$205.52

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 44.8¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$198.47	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$42.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$240.76
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$302.68	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$54.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 16¢	$176.16	$423.89	+$247.73
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 42.5¢	$947.81	$1.4K	+$423.72	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
RN1CTR	Overavg 40¢	$1.0K	$992.53	-$38.67	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 61¢	$1.1K	$924.05	+$240.81	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 47.5¢	$563.01	$636.49	+$73.48	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.5¢	$283.82	$367.77	+$83.95
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$279.19	$268.72	-$10.47
VE Venusian	Underavg 38¢	$112.48	$123.03	+$10.55	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 59¢	$118	$123	+$5	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 40¢	$549	$96.08	-$123.53	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$53	$61.5	+$8.5	48% 233-252 (485)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$15	$12.38	+$3.38	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,407.6

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$198.47

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Under$1,691.560¢+$42.29

Over$1,716.1144.8¢-$240.76

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,364.18

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$302.68

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Under$1,188.0258.8¢+$54.96

Over$176.1616¢+$247.73

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$947.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$423.72

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,031.2

Value

$992.53

PnL

-$38.67

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,120.06

Value

$924.05

PnL

+$240.81

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$563.01

Value

$636.49

PnL

+$73.48

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Under$283.8247.5¢+$83.95

Over$279.1940¢-$10.47

Venusian

Under

Invested

$112.48

Value

$123.03

PnL

+$10.55

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$118

Value

$123

PnL

+$5

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$549

Value

$96.08

PnL

-$123.53

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$53

Value

$61.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$3.38

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 39%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.