Spread: Giants (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (60%) · Eagles at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Giants17¢Eagles83¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eagles

Consensus Traders

Eagles 60%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$1.02

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 83.5¢

+39% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giants17%

Eagles84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eagles6 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares5,355

Combined PnL+$786.58

Giants4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares5,188

Combined PnL-$785.57

Eagles — 60%Giants — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEagles 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Eaglesavg 59¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	+$406.23	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455	Eaglesavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$331.16	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
betdgeCTR	Giantsavg 41¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$736.23	49% 1422-1474 (2896)
HO HomeRunHazard	Eaglesavg 69¢	$434.38	$443.19	+$8.81	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
65 6512395314597884	Eaglesavg 56¢	$217.61	$155.31	+$36.06	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
TA takeormakeCTR	Giantsavg 30¢	$121	$118.58	-$2.42	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Giantsavg 44¢	$101.78	$56.67	-$45.11	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189<$100	Eaglesavg 68¢	$54.02	$55.87	+$1.85	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eaglesavg 58.2¢	$47	$21.33	+$2.49	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Giantsavg 41¢	$11	$2.7	-$1.81	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

RN1

Eagles

Invested

$2,462

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$406.23

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455

Eagles

Invested

$1,184.13

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$331.16

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

betdgeCTR

Giants

Invested

$1,829.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$736.23

Record

49%

1422-1474 (2896)

HomeRunHazard

Eagles

Invested

$434.38

Value

$443.19

PnL

+$8.81

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

6512395314597884

Eagles

Invested

$217.61

Value

$155.31

PnL

+$36.06

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

takeormakeCTR

Giants

Invested

$121

Value

$118.58

PnL

-$2.42

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Giants

Invested

$101.78

Value

$56.67

PnL

-$45.11

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189<$100

Eagles

Invested

$54.02

Value

$55.87

PnL

+$1.85

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Pan9X<$100

Eagles

Invested

$47

Value

$21.33

PnL

+$2.49

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Giants

Invested

$11

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralEagles at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eagles

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEagles 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrEagles 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedEagles 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Eagles 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eagles wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.