Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (50%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 50¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$16.3K
-$191.83
51.1¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.5K | $10.3K | -$219.43 | 54% 17334-14553 (31887) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52¢ | $6.9K | $6.6K | -$333.01 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.9¢ | $3.6K | $3.7K | +$113.58 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$151.15 | 52% 4813-4531 (9344) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$40.67 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $7.38 | $7.38 | +$0 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
Invested
$10,535.59
Value
$10.3K
PnL
-$219.43
Record
54%
17334-14553 (31887)
Both legs:
Invested
$5,139.2
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$151.15
Record
52%
4813-4531 (9344)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,052.95
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$40.67
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$7.38
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.