Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 40.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 53¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$21.1K
$88.41
53¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Overavg 53¢ | $10.6K | $10.8K | +$200 | 53% 615-541 (1156) |
 EdZacharyCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $9.4K | $9.2K | -$100 | 40% 94-142 (236) |
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360CTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $750 | $728.24 | -$21.76 | 47% 142-163 (305) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52¢ | $311.21 | $323.18 | +$11.97 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 55.7¢ | $52.42 | $50.38 | -$2.04 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $25.97 | $26.46 | +$0.25 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
Invested
$10,600
Value
$10.8K
PnL
+$200
Record
53%
615-541 (1156)
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$9,400
Value
$9.2K
PnL
-$100
Record
40%
94-142 (236)
Invested
$750
Value
$728.24
PnL
-$21.76
Record
47%
142-163 (305)
VeryLucky888Invested
$311.21
Value
$323.18
PnL
+$11.97
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$52.42
Value
$50.38
PnL
-$2.04
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$25.97
Value
$26.46
PnL
+$0.25
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.